There's a lot of talk going on in the Realtor community about Zillow.com. Lots of Realtors are upset with the inaccurate estimates that Zillow provides on home value. I guess I see Zillow as just another tool. I offer free home valuations on my website which I look at as a way to get Sold prices for a particular neighborhood. The problem with calculating a home value is that it can only be as good as the info provided. In SLO County, the tax records don't even store # of bedrooms, square feet of home, or size of lot. That doesn't provide enough info to do an accurate analysis no matter what pricing algorithm you use.

Zillow does publish what they believe is their accuracy rate per county. You can see it here. They admit the data quantity for SLO County is lacking and say that for 66% of the estimates for SLO County are within 10%. So, for a home correctly valued at $700,000, you have a 66% chance that Zillow would be in the ballpark between $630,000-$770,000. There is also a 34% chance that the Zillow estimate would be outside this range. Unfortunately, if you are one of the 34% and Zillow says your home is valued at $850,000, you've been given an unrealistic estimate.

But, I use Zillow knowing that it's just one piece of data, not the answer.

Last week I posted that SLO was included in the Top 10 places to buy a home (based on potential appreciation) from CNN Money. Today, they released the top 10 places NOT to buy. Multiple cities in the Central Valley made the top 10. Article here

Port San Luis is one of the few coastal areas in the nation to have high-resolution digital elevation models completed to assist in tsunami forecasting. I'm not sure what all the data is but if you download the PDF, there are a lot of cool diagrams. You can download the report here.

The Tribune printed an article in the Sunday paper about home buyers turning to the Internet to search for a home. I must say, I'm surprised. The Tribune usually doesn't talk about the impact of the Internet on real estate because it is still trying to get agents to advertise their homes in their paper. I would have been more surprised if they had included the latest statistics on how many people found their home through the newspaper, which is 3% (down from 15% a few years ago).

New home price plunge worst since '70

Prices post nearly a 10% decline from a year earlier and more than 15% from peak; lower prices lift September sales 5.3%. Read article here

San Luis Obispo makes CNN money's Top 10 cities of where to buy. They predict that home prices will raise 40% over the next 5 years. They also state the median home price is $440,000 (where are they looking???). The description below sounds kinda scary. Full article here

SLO-Town, as the locals call it, is on the development fast track. It's in the middle of the last semi-rural stretch of central California coastline, and it's also home to the state's rising star of wine production, Paso Robles, where even French vintners are buying property.
The Median home price in Paso Robles has shot up by more than 100% since 2000. And according to local developer Peter Laughlin, commercial land has skyrocketed from $3 to $20 a square foot since 2001.
Yet the natural amenities, proximity to Southern California, and relatively low prices support forecasts of a continuing surge. Thousands of retirement-age boomers, it's said, will sell their SoCal homes for cheaper digs in SLO. Anti-development sentiment also helps. "They're not zoning quickly enough for the demand," Laughlin says. "Either they have to allow more homes or prices will go through the roof."

From MSN Money- Mortgage Loan Center- Here are the mortgage annual percentage rates as posted today. National Averages(APR): Low - 5.71% Average - 6.31% High - 7.17%

Here on the Central Coast we are again on the high side of Average. We'll see if this is going to be a trend.

When chosing who to work with for your purchase mortgage or refinance, I appreciate the position a GOOD Mortgage Broker will have for your loan search. Brokers allow many different banks and funding companies to compete for your loan. GOOD Brokers shop many (at least 5) different sources and generally some larger funders (banks) to ensure the rate, program and terms for your loan are the best for your situation. You benefit when working with a broker rather than walking into "a bank" and simply taking what they offer, brokers shop around on your behalf. When working with a trusted mortgage broker like Team Mortgage, you get that benefit.

It looks we won't have a store open on Sunday that sells Macs any time soon. According to today's Tribune, the Apple store in downtown SLO is on hold. Apple doesn't talk about upcoming stores so only they know what they are going to do. I bet there are some happier people at a store on South Higuera today!

10 Mistakes that Made Flipping a Flop

If you were considering flipping houses, read this article from USA today.

So...how is October shaping up?

Through the first 23 days, here's where we're at:

New Listings - 503
Price Reductions - 858
Pendings - 305

Both expireds and withdrawn/cancellations are up, helping to reduce the inventory:
Expireds - 317
Withdrawn/cancelled - 324

Today was a classic Central Coast day. If you wanted to spend time under the fog, you could go to Shell Beach. Want sunshine, go to Avila Beach.

My wife wanted a new bike for her birthday and she's been looking at beach cruisers for years. We purchased a 21 speed Townie from Art's Cyclery in SLO. This is the first time we purchased a bike from them and we were really happy with the service. They had the bike she wanted (pink) in stock and we picked it up today. Of course we needed to try it out so we took a family ride out the Bob Jones Bike Trail. The Townie is THE most comfortable bike I've (and she) has ever riden. Yes...she let me try it. My daughters now want one too.

Are we going to lose our Nude Beach?

Pirates Cove, the areas only nude beach, may need to cover up. The land, which is currently privately owned, may be sold to the state. If that happens, the days of clothing optional may be over if they enforce that there is no nudity allowed on state land.

According to Kirk, one of our valued blog readers, SLO/Paso got a mention in an article in the Wall Street Journal today. The article talked about mortgage default rates and used SLO/Paso as one of the 12 cities they listed. We have a 1.37% delinquent rate, up from 0.85%. The national average is 2.33%.

Thanks for the info Kirk!

From MSN Money- Mortgage Loan Center- Here are the mortgage annual percentage rates as posted today. National Averages(APR): Low - 5.71% Average - 6.28% High - 7.17%

I'll be posting mid-week National Averages so we can track the mortgage rate trends. Here in California on the Central Coast, we are seeing rates on the High side of Average for a "perfect borrower with a perfect home". Look back to earlier posts to refresh your memory as to what a "perfect borrower" is.

I just submitted a press release announcing my new seminar for real estate agents. If you're a Realtor from outside the Central Coast area, take a look at www.AskBucky.com

The Federal Trade Commission just released a 4-page brochure for consumers titled "Selling Your Home? Tips for Selecting a Real Estate Professional". You can download the brochure here.

There is one error in it that I found though. On the first page where it defines a real estate broker...

Someone with a Brokers license can work under the license of an owner of a Brokerage. In this scenario, it doesn't matter if it's a Broker or an Agent, they both share a portion of their commission to the Broker-Owner.

I'm still on the fence regarding Measure J, the retail shopping center.

While I rather not see that area developed, I do see the need for our region to generate tax dollars and retail seems one of the few ways this can be accomplished these days. Both sides agree that traffic will increase so it seems like there is no argument that there is demand for more shopping choices.

I'm getting disappointed with the opponents of the measure after reading about their refusal to disclose the LLC behind the campaign funding. Also, the person writing the Trib last week about the mailer sent out talking about the effect on downtown businesses was actually printed outside SLO County was just plain sleazy.

But, I'm also not thrilled with the Dalidio camp. I sent an email to the contact addresses on their website last Tuesday with some questions and have yet to receive a reply.

Here's where my mind is at on a few things:

- If the marketplace is not approved, I see more chain stores looking at downtown as the way to get into the area. Over the past year we've seen more chain stores open up and the new Apple store will pretty much put the locally-owned MacSuperstore on Higuera out of business. I have not heard any downtown building owner say they will give a discount on rents to local small business owners vs. chain stores so I will assume they will raise the rents if there is someone there willing to pay it. I believe that we'll see more locally owned downtown businesses leave if the Dilidio marketplace is not approved.

- There's a lot of talk about the number of cars exceeding existing overpasses and streets but no one has brought up the impact of Cal Poly's freedom to build what they want. Isn't adding 3,000 more students in a few years is going to effect SLO's traffic? I'm not sure what they are going to do about that and who is going to fund it. If you experienced the backup on Santa Rosa St when they closed Foothill Blvd for repairs you'll know how close to maxed out SLO is on other streets.

I love this area but worry if the cities in the County can work together on a vision where we want the area to be in the next 30 years vs. having cities competiting against each other for the limited funds from the State. We've ignored the need for affordable housing and Santa Maria has stepped up and filled in the void and has become the most populated city in Santa Barbara County. And what do we do to fix the other problems we have in the County such as having our largest school district have one of the lowest teacher salaries while Santa Maria has one of the highest?

Residents of SLO County should look at the potholes of Grover Beach and the Los Osos sewer mess to see what happens when local government fails. I hope that we can elect the right people to represent us to shape the future of our wonderful area rather than ones that aren't able or willing to deal with the new challenges that face us. If we don't, we're going to see more tax measures on future ballots and it's not just going to be to raise the sales tax. The day will come when property owners are going to be asked to foot the bill if we can't figure out how to raise the money we need other ways. I'll be the first to put a name to it... the "SLO County Quality of Living Tax".

Another local SLO business closed their doors yesterday, Tortilla Flats is no longer...

Although I've taken my family to dinner there a few times over the last few years to only be disappointed in the food, I do have fond memories during my Poly days. Searching the walls to find my name after eating "the worm" stand out more than eating the worm itself. And who can forget the lines outside on Friday and Saturday nights?

A Karoke bar will be replacing "the flats".

Mortgage interest rates remain at 30 year lows. One thing to remember is the rates one sees on TV or in print ads generally reflect 'perfect' borrowers; 20% or better equity, single family residence, fully documented income, debt ratios under 38%, credit scores 720 or better, loan amounts less than $417,000 on purchase loans and with no cash-out for refinances and maybe paying points. Is that everyone, no? Is that you, maybe? Contact me if you need to find out.

Here is what the chief economist of Quicken Loans has to say about this weeks mortgage market. I agree with his comments.

"Long-term interest rates remain near historic lows despite a small tick upward following last week's employment data. Where long-term rates will go from here is unknown, but a good rule of thumb is that rates rise much faster than they drop," says Bob Walters chief economist of Quicken Loans. "We are continuing to experience a trend of homeowners refinancing their adjustable rate mortgages before they reset, and getting into fixed-rate programs. We've also seen a higher volume of purchase activity, bouyed by low long-term rates dropping to levels that are more supportive of housing."

The National Association of Realtors has provided home price analysis reports for 119 markets. San Luis Obispo isn't included in the report but there is a lot of info contained at this link.

Click here for the reports

Tick. Tick. Beware the mortgage time-bomb

That ridiculously low-rate ARM seemed like such a good idea at the time. But now, payments will be coming due in a big, big way.

See entire article here

It's Apple Season!

My wife and I took a drive out See Canyon today for our annual trip to the Golpher Glen apple farm. Nothing better than taking a nice relaxing ride out See Canyon to pick up some yummy apples! Highly recommended.

My www.LocalLinks.com site was down most of the day and I apologize for the downtime. My website hosting vendor told me it would be back up in 30 minutes but it turned into 7 hours. I switched to another provider this evening and it will take about a day for the new location to be broadcast over the Internet. I hope the new hosting company resolves the issues I've been having with my Local Links site.

I just found another great use for TIVO and that is the ability to pause campaign ads and read the fine print. The commercial I'm looking at right now is for No on 86. I haven't read the propositions yet but know it has to do with smoking. Here's what it it flashes at the end:

Paid for by No on Proposition 86, Californians against unaccountable taxes. A coalition of taxpayers, businesses and law enforcement with major funding provided by R.J. Reynold's Tobacco Company, Inc. and the Cigar Association of America.

Hmmmmmmm......

A task force from the San Luis Obispo Chamber of Commerce rates the least earthquake safe buildings in downtown. Leading the list is the building Woodstock's pizza is in.

You can read the article here

and

see the list here.

I was driving my daughter to a softball game in Orcutt on Sunday and noticed that the new Kohls store on Broadway in Santa Maria was now open. That was fast!

Also, there's a Spirit halloween store open in Santa Maria too (also on Broadway). I always thought that a Spirit store would be popular in SLO with all the Poly kids but I guess they think Santa Maria is a better choice.

WOW!!! Today I gave myself the opportunity to simply enjoy how absolutely beautiful this day is. The sky is so blue and clear; the ocean is clear and blue; and the air is fresh and crisp. I know I'm the lender so you expect me to comment on money, but today is a great day to be thankful for living here on our beautiful Central Coast and I wanted to take a moment to comment on that instead. Thanks.

I updated www.SloWatch.com with the latest monthly statistics plus inventory levels per city. Interesting to see what cities have had significant inventory increases since August.

September 2006 - Central Coast MLS Statistics - Residential

New - 694
Back on market - 220
Pendings - 415
Price changes - 1257
Contingent - 39
Sold - 396
Expired - 425
Inactive - 368

In today's Trib (Business section) there is a list of the most expensive SLO County cities in regards to single family homes. The last on the list was Santa Margarita but they should have included a note stating the data they based the chart on reports California City sales as Santa Margarita. If you're unfamiliar with California City, it is about 45 minutes East of Santa Margarita (towards Highway 5).